RFG warns UK’s HS2 high-speed rail project could cost double initial estimates

The Rail Freight Group has warned that the UK’s ambitious high-speed rail project could cost double the estimates given by the secretary of state for transport.

It has been estimated by the UK secretary of state for transport, Chris Grayling MP, that the first phase of the HS2 project will cost around £24bn (~€27.4bn), but according to a survey conducted by quantity surveyor Michael Byng, the high-speed rail project could cost double this estimate.

The 4,500-page cost estimate prepared by Byng values the first phase of the HS2 project at £51bn, and the total cost of all phases of the project at more than £100bn, despite Grayling’s insistence that the cost would remain at £24bn, a value first calculated in 2013.

In November of last year, the Rail Freight Group’s (RFG) Lord Tony Berkeley requested a copy of a study carried out by PwC which compared the international construction costs of building high-speed railway lines, but was refused.

Why are the government’s estimates in question?

The government’s cost estimates for HS2 are in question largely because the project seems to have grown significantly in scope since the £24bn figure was first issued. Additions to the project since the first announcement include:

• New connections from the proposed HS2 line to London’s current railway;
• Alterations to the M6 and M42 motorways;
• The creation of new concrete structures to allow access to tunnels along the route; and
• Greater enabling works along the entire route to mitigate disruption caused by the project.

Alongside the report prepared by Byng, these additions to the project suggest that high-speed rail project could cost double the initial estimates, but the department for transport (DfT) has not updated its calculations to factor in changes to HS2’s scope and insists the initial estimate is accurate.

What has RFG said about cost estimates?

In an open letter to Grayling, Berkeley warned that the high-speed rail project could cost double the government’s estimates, and demanded more transparency from the DfT in responding to criticism of its calculations.

Berkeley commented: “Ministers are clearly trying to hide every detail of costs of HS2… Few, if any, in the industry believe the DfT figures so, before spending tens of billions in taxpayer money, the government must come clean and, if necessary, pause the project so that the real costs can be investigated in detail by parliament”.